Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Wayne Ellington

Wayne Ellington, #22 SG, North Carolina
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 200 lbs


Strengths:
- Pure scorer
- Mid-range jumper
- Ability to catch and shoot
- Cross over and step back jumper
- Three point shooting
- Footwork
- Takes care of the ball
- Competition

Weaknesses:
- Slower release
- Tendency to fad during game
- Athleticism
- Undersized at the NBA level
- Explosiveness
- Driving to basket
- Defensive consistency

Summary:
Wayne "The Rainman" Ellington can shoot the lights out of a building. Nobody has played the two-guard position better than him the past two months. After Carolina's magical run to the 2009 National Championship, and Ellington being named the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four, it's hard not to fathom that Ellington has done nothing but improve his draft stock.

I could spend hours discussing his abilities on the offensive floor, but his offensive abilities have been well documented. Just to highlight his strengths on this end of the floor, he has phenomenal range (he'll be able to shoot the NBA three pointer), he has a sweet mid-range game that he rarely misses from, the ability to cross over against his defender and knock down a step back jumper, he runs well off of staggered screens, and he catches and shoots the ball with high efficiency. During the NCAA Tournament he shot over 50% from the floor and 50% from behind the arc. He has improved his ability to take care of the basketball (posting an A/T ratio of 1.63 this season) while playing against top-tier competition. He also demonstrates nice footwork on both ends of the floor.

There are some areas of Ellington's game that improved from his sophomore to junior seasons, especially during the NCAA Tournament, but still needs to be worked on. Ellington has a tendency to fad during games. He lacks that killer instinct that makes him a threat as long as he's on the court. If he develops this mentality, you better watch out because he has the ability to score six or more points in less than 30 seconds. His overall athleticism and size are not ideal either at the next level. Ellington is listed at 6'4", but when I saw him walking around at Carolina, he definitely didn't look it. He is not very athletic, and he won't wow you with his explosiveness. He is not an exceptional slasher, rather he focuses his game is centered around finesse. This aspect of his game can be seen because he rarely takes the ball straight to the hoop, rather pulling up for a jump shot. If he does take the ball to the basket, you notice Ellington tries to avoid contact. He does not like to get hit while he is shooting, which is evident when he shoots because he tends to fad away on his jump shots. This is also confirmed by his inability to get to the free throw line in games (averaging just shy of three free throw attempts per game). As I mentioned before, he lacks that killer instinct when it comes to taking over a game; he would need to focus on getting to the line more often in games to develop this area of his offensive game.

On the defensive end of the floor, Ellington leaves little to be desired. He has the tools (decent lateral quickness and footwork) to be a good defender at the next level, and he has shown that he can buckle down on this end of the court, especially in the clutch. His defensive effort during the National Championship game was solid and matched the level of his teammates. Throughout the season though, Ellington did not put forth all his effort on this end of the floor. He has taken long strides in this area of his game, but still has room to grow and improve. If he could maintain the level of defensive intensity he demonstrated during the championship game, he would be less of a liability.

Projection: late first round to early second round

Best fit:
- Los Angeles Lakers: I have mentioned that Ellington lacks the mentality to take over a game if necessary. He has all the tools to be a very good offensive player. Playing him behind Kobe Bryant could be the best thing for Ellington. Kobe would challenge Ellington to be a better player both offensively and defensively. Plus, when Kobe needs a breather, Ellington could step in without the Lakers loosing too much offensive production.
- Detroit: one of the offensive tools that Ellington possess is the ability to run off of screens and catch and shoot the basketball. Rip Hamilton does this currently with the Pistons, and I believe Ellington could do the same off the bench. Learning under Hamilton could be another great option for Ellington because Hamilton puts forth his effort on both ends of the court to make himself and his teammates better. The only problem I see here is that the Pistons have some uncertainty with its front court and may address these issues with its first round pick.
- Philadelphia: since the 76ers traded Kyle Korver to the Utah Jazz several seasons ago, the team has lacked a player who could consistently spread the floor. Shooting from behind the arc is one thing that Ellington is good at. He would compliment the playing style of the 76ers and provide a much needed threat from the mid-range back to the three point line.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Dante Cunningham

Dante Cunningham, #33 PF, Villanova
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 230 lbs

Strengths:

- Basketball IQ
- Movement without the ball
- Scoring around basket
- Improved mid-range jumper
- Runs court well
- Played against elite competition

- Hustle
- Shooting mechanics

Weaknesses:

- Rebounding
- Size and Strength
- Post moves
- Ball handling
- Defending next level?

Summary:
Dante Cunningham was not too impressive his first couple of seasons at Villanova. In his senior season, he has shown improvements in his game that are worthy of giving him a look in this year's draft. He has improved his ability to score away from the basket by developing a mid-range jump shot. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, Cunningham demonstrated that he was not afraid to take a 15'-18' if he was left open by the opposing team's defender. He has nice shooting mechanics that allow for a nice, smooth jump shot. Adding this jump shot to his game was vital if he wanted to make it to the NBA because Cunningham is not built like a NBA post player. He is 6'8" and 230 lbs, and he definitely looks it, making his size a question as to whether he'll be able to transition well. He will be a tweener at the next level, making it difficult to project how he will perform in the NBA.

Cunningham has many other strengths that stand out. Since he is not built like a traditional power forward, Cunningham has learned how to move well in the post without the basketball. Seldom does he stand in the post waiting to post up a player (he lacks advanced post moves which is related to his ball handling skills and with his size; it is difficult to project how this area of his game will translate to the NBA). Rather, he will flash towards the ball from the low post or make cuts to allow himself to get open for a teammate.
He also runs the court well in transition. His ability to move without the ball to provide better opportunities for him and his teammates demonstrates his strong basketball IQ because he is self-aware of his strengths and weaknesses, floor situations and game situations. Whenever a shot is taken, Cunningham is one of the first players you see crashing the boards trying to grab an offensive rebound. In the situations he has the ball in his hands in the low post, Cunningham has shown he can score well around the basket.

On the defensive end of the floor, Cunningham has pretty good awareness. He makes sure he understands where he is in relationship to the basketball and his man, and he moves to ensure he stays in a position to defend the player. He also possess decent lateral quickness, which is good because if he switches on a perimeter screen, he will not be a huge liability.

Many of Cunningham's weaknesses stem from his size. When going up against bigger and more athletic players, he has a difficult time defending these individuals. Furthermore, he is not a great rebounder. This season he averaged just over seven rebounds per game in slightly more than 31 minutes of action. These are not good numbers for a power forwards, especially in the NBA. Cunningham has good length and technique, but his physical limitations allow for stronger players to out muscle him for rebounds.

Overall, Cunningham has shown improvement in his senior season that he did not demonstrate in the past. He may be a little undersized for the next level, but by getting him into the weight room, he should be able to develop his strength which will help out on the court. He has a good understanding for the game and the tools to be successful, but it will take time to continue developing Cunningham.

Projection:
Second rounder (45-60, depending on team need). I just do not see Cunningham going undrafted. He improved drastically from his junior to senior season, which leaves me to believe he still has more room to improve. He will not contribute initially wherever he goes. He will more than likely be sent to the D-League or overseas to refine his game.

Best fit:

- Portland: after several PF and C expire this off-season, the Trailblazers will have some holes to fill in its front court. It depends if Portland wants a project or a player who is more refined.
- Minnesota: the Timberwolves already have their starting bigs next season (Love and Jefferson) and some decent depth (Cardinal, Smith, Gomes). Unless a player they just can't pass on falls to them, taking on Cunningham as a project could be interesting.
- Detroit: the Pistons are a team that should look to rebuild. The team will not win with its current roster. With Wallace, Brown and McDyess coming off the books this off-season and it being uncertain if they resign with the Pistons, I see the Pistons targeting a big man (either in free agency or the draft), but if they are looking for someone to step in immediately, Cunningham may not be the right option.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Gerald Henderson

Gerald Henderson, #15 SG, Duke
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 215 lbs


Strengths:
- Mid-range game
- Slashing abilities
- Catch and shoot
- Athletic
- Explosiveness
- Lateral quickness
- Wingspan
- Lockdown defender
- NBA type body
- Hustle
- Passing
- Rebounding
- Potential

Weaknesses:
- Inconsistent offensively
- Three-point shooting
- Creating own shot
- Changing directions with the ball

Summary:
Gerald Henderson is a freak athlete. That was the first thing I told myself the first time I saw him play as a freshman. He still continues to impress with his athletic abilities. He uses his quick first step and explosiveness to blow by defenders as he slashes towards the basket. When he makes his move, he is looking to score on a dunk, whether he gets fouled or not. This part of his game is where I have seen drastic improvement every year. He has looked to get to the rim more often throughout games, which has resulted in him making more trips to the line. When he gets to the line, he knocks down his free throws (converting on 76.1% of them this season). Henderson's mid-range game is nothing to scoff at either. He can comfortably pull up from 16'-20' out and knock down a jump shot. He is also very good at catching and shooting the basketball. His numbers do not lie; he has taken better shots this year, converting on 49% of his shot inside the arc. If Henderson does not have an open shot, he is able to find others in the offense because he is a very good passer.

There are some weaknesses in Henderson's offensive game, but nothing that can not be fixed. He is not a great three-point shooter, which is surprising because he possess nice form and elevation when he shoots. Earlier in his junior season he was converting approximately 50% of his three pointers, but that number has sense dropped off to 33.6%. He also is not great at creating his own shot. If he were to improve his ability to change directions with the ball in his hands, he may be able to create more separation and opportunities for an open shot or take better care of the ball when he slashes towards the basket.

Defensively, there is much to like about Henderson. He is a lockdown defender who possess great lateral quickness, hustle and heart. If he get beaten on the dribble, Henderson is quick enough to recover. When a shot is taken, he will challenge the shooter, and then proceed to crash the boards. He is good shot blocker and rebounder for a guard because of his wingspan and explosiveness (which allows him to get up and make a play on the ball). He can make a big difference on this end of the court, especially in the pros because of his skills, dedication and physical attributes.


Overall, Henderson is great prospect for the NBA. He has the skills, body, dedication and potential to be a solid player for many years. He is not always consistent on the offensive end of the floor, but his hustle and defensive play can certainly help almost any team looking at drafting Henderson.

Projection:
mid- to late-lottery pick (7-12)

Best fit:
**TBD**

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Chase Budinger

Chase Budinger, #34 SG/SF, Arizona
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 218 lbs


Strengths:
- Spot up shooting
- Excellent size for a wing
- Athleticism
- Explosiveness
- Transition game
- Basketball IQ
- Offensive movement
- Three point shooting
- Unselfish

Weaknesses:
- Defensive abilities
- First step
- Ability to create own shot
- Assertiveness
- Lateral quickness
- Mid-range game
- Ball handling

Summary:
Let me start by saying that Chase Budinger is an athletic wingman (he was a dual All-State athlete in basketball and volleyball) with a strong basketball IQ. He did not really improve from his sophomore to his junior year like most expected, but he did continue to play well. He has a great sense of where he and his teammates are on the floor, where open spots are on the floor, and the ability to play in multi-speed offensive sets. All of these aspects emphasize his understanding of the game and how he can bring the best out of himself and his teammates. Budinger has many skills on the offensive end of the floor that make him a defensive nightmare. First off, he is 6'7" and plays the SG and SF positions, which is especially tall for a college wingman. He is able to use his height and athleticism to his advantage. He runs the court well in transition where he is often available for an open jump shot or ally-oop. He has great explosiveness which allows him to get up for lob passes and finish around the basket. In a half-court set, Budinger is able to find open areas on the court because he is constantly in motion. Before he starts to move to an open area, Budinger will first look to set up his defender for a backdoor cut. If he does not get the ball, he typically looks to find an open area along the perimeter. He shoots very well from behind the arc (39.9%) by either catching and shooting the ball or taking a spot up jumper. If a shot is not available, Budinger possess good court vision and passing skills to find open teammates.

Budinger does have several offensive weaknesses. First, he is an average ball handler and has a slow first step. This affects his ability to take full advantage of his athletic abilities when he looks to slash towards the basket for a layup. Second, his mid-range game is not very consistent. Third, he is does not convert well if there is contact. Fourth, I would have liked to see be more aggressive and post up smaller defenders. If he can improve these areas of his offensive game, he can certainly be a scary offensive player.

Defensively, Budinger still has room to grow because he does not always assert himself. He does not have exceptional lateral quickness to keep up with quicker defenders. Sometimes Budinger loses focus and gets out of a defensive stance, making it easier for defenders to blow by him. This leaves me to question whether he will be able to defend the better athletes at the next level. He does position himself nicely though to grab rebounds, allowing himself to use his height and athleticism to pull in boards over smaller players. Overall, he has potential on the defensive end of the court.

Considering all of his strengths and weaknesses, I believe Budinger will make a good role player in the NBA. He can do a bit of everything, but just like Tyler Smith of Tennessee, he is not great at one specific area. He has a NBA-type body and great size to play the wing position. His experience, unselfish play and offensive potential make him a promising prospect. He will more than likely not be known for his defense in the NBA, but he could be known for his offensive abilities as this is the area that I believe he has the most upside in.

Projection: mid- to late-first round (20-27)

Player comparison: Brent Barry

Best fit:
- Philadelphia: Budinger will provide outside shooting the 76ers need. He also plays into the athletic wing mentality of this team.
- Memphis: Budinger has the potential to play either the 2 or 3 in the NBA. The Grizzlies' bench is thin when it comes to a solid back up player at these positions. Budinger can step in and fill this role on a young team.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Tyler Smith

Tyler Smith, #1 SF, Tennessee
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 210 lbs

Strengths:
- Versatility
- Ideal NBA SF body
- Athleticism
- Wingspan/Length
- Slashing abilities
- Post game
- Unselfish
- Basketball IQ
- Defensive potential

Weaknesses:
- Perimeter shooting
- Mid-range game
- Dribbling
- Older than those in his class
- Does a lot well, but nothing great

Summary:
I like Tyler Smith as a ball player and as a person. While I was a student at the University of Tennessee, I had the opportunity to work with the Men's basketball program. I remember my first day there Smith walked up to me, introduced himself and said he was glad I was there to help. He was always one of the first, if not the first, on the practice court and one of the last to leave. During these times he would work on his shot, which showed his desire to work on a weaker part of his game. His teammates loved him; his coaches respected him; the office enjoyed him. All of these parties appreciated what he brought to the Vols family both on and off the court. He is a young man of high character who cares deeply for his family and those around him.

I always enjoyed watching Smith while I was at Tennessee. I found him to be an intriguing prospect. He played both the small forward and power forward positions, and he could guard multiple positions on any given night. His versatility was much needed to help be a leader for the Volunteers this season. His body and athleticism make him ideal to guard the SG, SF, and PF in college, and will definitely help at the next level. Smith is explosive, has great lateral quickness, and a great wingspan to help him either keep up with defenders, pick off passes or block shots. He does exemplify some defensive lapses, but his promise and versatility will be helpful for any NBA team.

Smith has some work to do on the offensive end of the floor. He does not shoot well from behind the arc, a skill that is important for the success of NBA wings (a career 29.5%). He has nice mechanics and a quick release, but in game play he does not always consistently release the ball at the same point, nor does he use a lot of his legs to shoot. Working on these parts of his game should help improve his shot, but you have to ask why these types of fundamentals have not been addressed.

Smith is a good slasher and post player. He is able to take the ball to the hoop, finish and get fouled (he averaged 6.5 attempts per game this season). Since he also played PF on numerous occassions, he had to develop a post game. He is fairly effective in the post, especially against smaller defenders, but he is also able to contend with stronger players. Smith does tend to do too much in both of these situations and needs to learn his limitations in these situations. He has very good court vision when he does not have the ball in his hands, and if he can understand his boundaries, he'll be able to develop his court vision with the ball. If he could work on his ball handling as well, he'd prove to be an even more effective slasher and post player.

Last year I would have put Smith as a late lottery pick. This year he did not really do anything to improve his draft stock, and may have actually hurt it. He needs to improve his perimeter shooting, work on his mid-range game and dribbling to be more of an offensive threat at the next level. His basketball IQ, versatility on the defensive end, defensive potential and his NBA-ready body will certainly interest a NBA team. As the saying goes, Smith is a jack of all traits, but a master of none. It leads me to believe that he will be a good role player that will come off the bench.

Projection: late first, early second (30-37)

Best fit: **TBD**

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Jordan Hill

Jordan Hill, #43 PF, Arizona
Height: 6'10"
Weight: 235 lbs


Strengths:
- Finishing around basket
- Length/Wingspan/Size
- Athleticism/Explosiveness
- Rebounding
- Shot mechanics
- Post-up abilities
- Decent passing out of post
- Intensity
- Unselfish
- Few bad habits
- Potential

Weaknesses:
- A bit mechanical on both ends of the floor
- Defense
- Strength
- Dribbling
- Basketball IQ
- Dominating smaller/weaker players

Summary:
I do not have many opportunities to watch many west coast college basketball games because I live on the east coast, but when I have the opportunity, I try to watch a few players I have heard a little bit about. Through the first three rounds of this year's NCAA Tournament, I watched Arizona play and was able to scout Jordan Hill. I did not know a lot about him as a player, so I decided to do some background research on him. I found out he had not been playing basketball for a long time, which can be good and bad. It is good because he has not developed any bad habits. It is bad because his peers have more experience on him. Needless to say, after watching several match-ups, I walked away impressed, but I must emphasize that he is still raw with a lot of potential.

On the offensive end of the floor, Hill demonstrated on numerous occasions that he was capable of fronting his defender and providing a big target to get the ball in the post. When he catches the ball, he did not necessarily look to score first; he felt the defense to determine what was given to him. If he was double teamed or an opportunity to get to the basket did not exist, he would pass out of the post and reposition himself (but he is not a good passer). If he was in position to score, Hill would take the ball to the basket. He finished well around the basket when he did look to score. He has some decent post-up moves (nothing advanced) that allowed him to create opportunities for himself and to create contact when he shot. His free throw shooting is not great (a career average of 63.6%) and clearly has room to improve. Hill has the tools to develop a nice mid-range game as well. He has excellent shot mechanics for a guy his size, which he put on display. He challenged himself and took several shots roughly 15'-18' out, making several of the shots.

Hill did not possess good ball handling abilities, nor did he dominate his foes in the match-ups I watched. As I mentioned before, he does not have many years of experience under his belt. Spending more time around the game should help polish his offensive abilities. Improving his strength is imperative for him to dominate on not only the offensive end of the court, but the defensive side as well.

Hill has the tools to be a very good defender in the pros. He is explosive, has a great wingspan and length, and hustle. On several instances I saw Hill dive on the floor for a loose ball and fight for the ball. His explosiveness and length allow him to be a very good rebounder and shot blocker. As far as rebounding goes, Hill will follow shots on the offensive end and box out on defensive end. He goes up for the ball with both hands, and once he grabs the ball, he quickly pulls it in to protect it. These same tools help make him a good shot blocker as well. This season he averaged 1.7 bpg.

Hill's overall defense is average at best though because of his lack of fundamentals. He tends to pick up cheap fouls, especially when the team plays man-to-man, because he'll either lose sight of his defender and try to recover, tries to make a play and go for a steal or block, is to slow to rotate or provide help defense. He is athletic enough to make up for these deficiencies; he just needs to improve his defensive awareness and his already average basketball IQ.

Overall, Hill is an unselfish player with a ton of upside. He is already a good rebounder and shot blocker, but needs to improve his overall defense. He shoots the ball effectively (career 57.8% from the field) around the basket and has demonstrated that he can step out and take a 15 footer. Even though he demonstrated his scoring abilities, his offensive game is not polished. He does need work both on and off the court to get a get return on your investment. Doing so will help Hill reach his potential.

Projection: mid- to late-lottery (7-13)

Best fit:
- Oklahoma City: the Thunder's front court is fairly thin, especially after the team traded away Chris Wilcox and rescinded a deal for Tyson Chandler. If this team wants to make a push for the playoffs (like I've heard), the team will need a deeper front court. Hill's unselfishness, intensity, ability to score and rebound will allow him to step in on a young team and provide solid minutes.
- Toronto: no one is sure if Bosh is staying in Toronto. Drafting Hill could serve as an insurance policy if Bosh decides to leave in free agency or is traded away. Hill is not as prolific a scorer as Bosh is, but he does have upside on this end of the court. He also will go after rebounds.
- Charlotte: the one area the Bobcats need to look at other than a scorer is a big man. The team may not resign May or Howard this off-season, resulting in a loss of front court depth. If the Bobcats looked to draft Hill, the team would be able to get a player who could provide solid energy minutes off the bench while they look to bring him along in development.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Dionte Christmas

Dionte Christmas, #22 SG, Temple

Strengths:
- Prolific scorer
- Shooting range
- Size and length
- Defensive effort
- Lateral quickness
- Shooting mechanics
- Ability to get the the line

Weaknesses:
- Creating own shot
- Ball handling
- Movement without the ball
- Posting up smaller defenders
- Older than peers

Summary:
Dionte Christmas can flat out shoot. He has NBA-ready range that he has demonstrated night in and night out. His shooting mechanics, quick release and ability to catch and shoot makes him dangerous from anywhere on the court. He plays well in transition where he is willing to take a jump shot or take the ball straight to the basket. He understands how to get to the line, especially on the fast break. If he decides to go to the hoop, he has demonstrated that he is capable of creating contact and finishing strong. For those times he gets fouled, he goes to the line confidently to shoot (this year he converted on 75% of his free throws). He is not afraid to put the ball on the floor to create his own shot, but it is not his strength. He is at best an average ballhandler (2008-09 A/T ratio of 1) and has had the ball taken away from him by defenders. In Temple's first round game against Arizona State of the NCAA Tournament, you could find Christmas roaming the perimeter, especially in the corners, in half-court situations. This of course can be attributed to ASU's zone defense it plays, but Christmas did not necessarily look to create his shot against the defense, but rather settle for pull up jumpers.

On the defensive end of the court, Christmas exhibits good effort. He has the ability to keep his defender in front of him, help teammates as a weakside defender, fights through screens, has good lateral quickness allowing him to keep with the man he guards and has long arms which allow him to get his hands in the passing lane and pick off poorly thrown passes. Although he demonstrates good defensive qualities, I question his ability to play against the best in the NBA. Against ASU, Christmas did not guard James Harden, a player many scouts are high on. Instead, he guarded ASU's guards who will not be playing at the next level. He may not be a liability though because in several games this year Christmas was able to hold his own against other players, especially those who tried to post him up.

He has the ability and tools to play in the NBA in the long run, but in the short run he will find it tough to make it on a roster. He will more than likely be either an international or D-League player for a few years.

Projection: second round to undrafted

Best fit:
- New Orleans: can you imagine Chris Paul penetrating the lane only to kick out to Christmas for three? With a guard like Paul who would require a double team, or at the very least some defensive help to slow him down, Christmas could get plenty of open looks from downtown.
- LA Lakers: Christmas would not see much time in LA because he would be backing up the league's best SG in Kobe Bryant. I do not think Christmas is the next Kobe, but he would have the opportunity to learn from one of the game's best players. It doesn't hurt that Christmas can shoot the lights out if you give him the chance (something Kobe does well).
- Philadelphia: the 76ers have struggled shooting from deep this season. Christmas would be able to provide a presence from behind the arc, but I do think better prospects are out there the 76ers could take before Christmas.