Overvalued Stock?

Everyone this year has seemingly fallen in love with Hasheem Thabeet. He is the 7'3" center who plays for UConn. I'll be the first to admit he has potential and he makes his living on the defensive end of the floor, but is Thabeet the dominant player everyone claims? I do not think so. Honestly, I think he is a bit soft, especially if a strong player is willing to take the ball at Thabeet. He MUST improve his lateral quickness to be effective at the next level. In college, all Thabeet did was sit in the lane and wait to block the opposing team's shots or grab a rebound after a missed shot. You can not sit in the defensive lane in the NBA or the officials will call defensive three seconds. Currently, I do not think he has the ability to rotate quick enough on defense. In the games where Thabeet was forced to rotate and not play stationary in the defensive paint, he drew several fouls.

I want to take a look at Thabeet's rebounding numbers. I have heard people claim he is a dominant rebounder (he should be if he stands 7'3" tall), but does he rebound against the best competition, or are his numbers padded?

Going through this years rebounding totals, Thabeet had good rebounding games against:
Western Carolina (17)
Miami (14)
Bryant (12)
Delaware St (17)
Buffalo (18)
Fairfield (11)
West Virgina (13)*
Seton Hall (17)
Notre Dame (11)*
Providence (11)
Louisville (11)***
Michigan (12)
Syracuse (16)***
Seton Hall (20)
Marquette (15)
Notre Dame (11)*
Pitt (13)***
Syracuse (14)***
UT Chat (13)
Purdue (15)*
Mizzou (13)*

Just looking at the games he posted double figures in, I do not see a lot of great competition. I will say this, the Big East did produce some of the best teams in college basketball this year, but he post his best rebounding games against lesser competition or against teams who are perimeter based teams. He did post impressive numbers against Pitt, Louisville, West Virginia, Syracuse (but they are more perimeter based), and Notre Dame (but they don't really have a guy big enough other than Zeller; Harangody is strong, but a bit undersized). I will not discount Purdue or Mizzou because once teams get into tournament play, everyone elevates their game.

My point is everyone claims his defensive abilities, which I will not doubt. He can change shots whether he blocks them or not. I feel his rebounding numbers are elevated due to the competition he has posted his best rebounding games against. Teams can get him out of the game by getting him in foul trouble (Pitt, Gonzaga, Villanova, Texas A&M), although he did post double figures in games where he did foul out, and playing a transition game (he just does not run the floor extremely well). Let's face it, he's 7'3" and all he has to do is put his arms in the air and he'd be close to 10' tall. He is coming out in a weak draft class. I bet he will go in the top 5, but in a year where the talent pool is better, I think he would be a top 10 pick at best, if not a late lottery pick.

I know most people won't agree with me because they love his size and what he can do on the defensive end of the floor, but he needs to improve his lateral quickness, he needs to get bigger, and he needs to refine his offensive game (he can not make a shot outside of five feet from the basket) if he wants to be dominant. I know he's only played for a couple of years so these things can come around, but how much can he improve? Will he ever be the offesive threat coaches may see and expect? Can he be more than a cherry picker on the defensive end and become a truly dominant defensive big? In college he has been a man among boys because of how tall he is. What happens when he goes up against players the same size as he is? Only time will tell, but I would bet that he will only become another average big man.

Terrence Williams

Terrence Williams, #1 SG/SF, Louisville
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 220 lbs

Strengths:
- Versatility
- Passing
- Athleticism
- Rebounding
- Conditioning
- Transition play
- Competition
- Improved three point shooting
- Executes offensively
- Court vision
- NBA body
- Size/Wingspan
- Toughness
- Stat sheet filler

Weaknesses:
- Creating own shot
- Getting to free throw line
- Pull up jumper
- Control issues
- Shooting off of the dribble
- Using off hand

Summary:
Terrence Williams is an exciting player to watch. His versatility at the wings position allows him to fill up a stat sheet like very few other college players. This season he averaged 12 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game. On top of that, he improved his ability to take care of the ball by posting an A/T ratio of 2.15 (5 assists, 2.3 turnovers per game)! Williams has the athleticism and the build to be in the NBA.

Williams is a phenomenal play maker, especially for the wing. He possess great court vision which allows him to find open teammates with crisp passes. He has a great wingspan and is very explosive. He uses these tools to go up and grab rebounds or block shots, especially against taller and bigger players. His physical being helps him execute offensively, but he does have one glaring problem that he must address at the next level: his scoring abilities. First, let me say that Williams has improved his three point shooting percentages, as well as his overall field goal percentages. He has done this by improving his shooting mechanics and shot selection. Williams does not create his own shot well. Although he has improved his ability to take care of the basketball, Williams is not strong at dribbling with his off (left) hand. If he penetrates into the lane (sometimes he is out of control when he does), Williams would rather take a floater or pass the ball to a teammate instead of taking an extra step or two towards the basket. He may have adapted to this style of play because he is not very efficient at scoring around the basket, especially after contact. If he does get to the free throw line, he MUST work on converting (his percentages from the charity strip have fallen from 61.2% his freshman year to 58.1% his senior year). Also, his pull-up jumper or shooting off the dribble need some polishing.

Williams has the potential to be a beast on the defensive end. As mentioned before, he is a rebounding machine for a wing (8.6 total rebounds per game, with an average of 7.2 rebounds coming from the defensive end). His wingspan and length allow him to get his hand into passing lanes for steals. Sometimes Williams becomes a bit lackadaisical on the defensive end, but his athleticism, lateral quickness, and explosiveness allows him to quickly recover. He is not afraid to go up and challenge a player, especially those bigger than him. This mentality will serve him well as he may be asked by his coach to guard multiple positions on any given night.

Overall, Williams plays best in transition rather than in a half-court set, but he has the tools to be a player in the NBA for many, many years. He must continue to work on his shot, ability to get to the basket, control issues, and ability to dribble with his off hand if he wants to be more than a role player at the next level.

Projection: mid-first rounder (15-20)

Best fit:
- Oklahoma City: the Thunder is a young team. Getting a player with Williams' skills to grow with this team may be beneficial. The Thunder is building its team around a team concept, and getting a player like Williams who seemingly prefers to find his teammates for open shots could be a great idea. On top of that, he could be another defensive stopper the team could be looking for, especially off the bench.
- Phoenix and New York: Williams' is most effective in transition because of his freakish athleticism. If he works on taking the ball to the basket, I could see him fitting in well with either team. Especially on Phoenix, he could have the opportunity to learn from Grant Hill and develop into his game into Hill's mold.

Wayne Ellington

Wayne Ellington, #22 SG, North Carolina
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 200 lbs

Strengths:
- Pure scorer
- Mid-range jumper
- Ability to catch and shoot
- Cross over and step back jumper
- Three point shooting
- Footwork
- Takes care of the ball
- Competition

Weaknesses:
- Slower release
- Tendency to fad during game
- Athleticism
- Undersized at the NBA level
- Explosiveness
- Driving to basket
- Defensive consistency

Summary:
Wayne "The Rainman" Ellington can shoot the lights out of a building. Nobody has played the two-guard position better than him the past two months. After Carolina's magical run to the 2009 National Championship, and Ellington being named the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four, it's hard not to fathom that Ellington has done nothing but improve his draft stock.

I could spend hours discussing his abilities on the offensive floor, but his offensive abilities have been well documented. Just to highlight his strengths on this end of the floor, he has phenomenal range (he'll be able to shoot the NBA three pointer), he has a sweet mid-range game that he rarely misses from, the ability to cross over against his defender and knock down a step back jumper, he runs well off of staggered screens, and he catches and shoots the ball with high efficiency. During the NCAA Tournament he shot over 50% from the floor and 50% from behind the arc. He has improved his ability to take care of the basketball (posting an A/T ratio of 1.63 this season) while playing against top-tier competition. He also demonstrates nice footwork on both ends of the floor.

There are some areas of Ellington's game that improved from his sophomore to junior seasons, especially during the NCAA Tournament, but still needs to be worked on. Ellington has a tendency to fad during games. He lacks that killer instinct that makes him a threat as long as he's on the court. If he develops this mentality, you better watch out because he has the ability to score six or more points in less than 30 seconds. His overall athleticism and size are not ideal either at the next level. Ellington is listed at 6'4", but when I saw him walking around at Carolina, he definitely didn't look it. He is not very athletic, and he won't wow you with his explosiveness. He is not an exceptional slasher, rather he focuses his game is centered around finesse. This aspect of his game can be seen because he rarely takes the ball straight to the hoop, rather pulling up for a jump shot. If he does take the ball to the basket, you notice Ellington tries to avoid contact. He does not like to get hit while he is shooting, which is evident when he shoots because he tends to fad away on his jump shots. This is also confirmed by his inability to get to the free throw line in games (averaging just shy of three free throw attempts per game). As I mentioned before, he lacks that killer instinct when it comes to taking over a game; he would need to focus on getting to the line more often in games to develop this area of his offensive game.

On the defensive end of the floor, Ellington leaves little to be desired. He has the tools (decent lateral quickness and footwork) to be a good defender at the next level, and he has shown that he can buckle down on this end of the court, especially in the clutch. His defensive effort during the National Championship game was solid and matched the level of his teammates. Throughout the season though, Ellington did not put forth all his effort on this end of the floor. He has taken long strides in this area of his game, but still has room to grow and improve. If he could maintain the level of defensive intensity he demonstrated during the championship game, he would be less of a liability.

Projection: late first round to early second round

Best fit:
- Los Angeles Lakers: I have mentioned that Ellington lacks the mentality to take over a game if necessary. He has all the tools to be a very good offensive player. Playing him behind Kobe Bryant could be the best thing for Ellington. Kobe would challenge Ellington to be a better player both offensively and defensively. Plus, when Kobe needs a breather, Ellington could step in without the Lakers loosing too much offensive production.
- Detroit: one of the offensive tools that Ellington possess is the ability to run off of screens and catch and shoot the basketball. Rip Hamilton does this currently with the Pistons, and I believe Ellington could do the same off the bench. Learning under Hamilton could be another great option for Ellington because Hamilton puts forth his effort on both ends of the court to make himself and his teammates better. The only problem I see here is that the Pistons have some uncertainty with its front court and may address these issues with its first round pick.
- Philadelphia: since the 76ers traded Kyle Korver to the Utah Jazz several seasons ago, the team has lacked a player who could consistently spread the floor. Shooting from behind the arc is one thing that Ellington is good at. He would compliment the playing style of the 76ers and provide a much needed threat from the mid-range back to the three point line.

Dante Cunningham

Dante Cunningham, #33 PF, Villanova
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 230 lbs

Strengths:
- Basketball IQ
- Movement without the ball
- Scoring around basket
- Improved mid-range jumper
- Runs court well
- Played against elite competition
- Hustle
- Shooting mechanics

Weaknesses:
- Rebounding
- Size and Strength
- Post moves
- Ball handling
- Defending next level?

Summary:
Dante Cunningham was not too impressive his first couple of seasons at Villanova. In his senior season, he has shown improvements in his game that are worthy of giving him a look in this year's draft. He has improved his ability to score away from the basket by developing a mid-range jump shot. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, Cunningham demonstrated that he was not afraid to take a 15'-18' if he was left open by the opposing team's defender. He has nice shooting mechanics that allow for a nice, smooth jump shot. Adding this jump shot to his game was vital if he wanted to make it to the NBA because Cunningham is not built like a NBA post player. He is 6'8" and 230 lbs, and he definitely looks it, making his size a question as to whether he'll be able to transition well. He will be a tweener at the next level, making it difficult to project how he will perform in the NBA.

Cunningham has many other strengths that stand out. Since he is not built like a traditional power forward, Cunningham has learned how to move well in the post without the basketball. Seldom does he stand in the post waiting to post up a player (he lacks advanced post moves which is related to his ball handling skills and with his size; it is difficult to project how this area of his game will translate to the NBA). Rather, he will flash towards the ball from the low post or make cuts to allow himself to get open for a teammate. He also runs the court well in transition. His ability to move without the ball to provide better opportunities for him and his teammates demonstrates his strong basketball IQ because he is self-aware of his strengths and weaknesses, floor situations and game situations. Whenever a shot is taken, Cunningham is one of the first players you see crashing the boards trying to grab an offensive rebound. In the situations he has the ball in his hands in the low post, Cunningham has shown he can score well around the basket.

On the defensive end of the floor, Cunningham has pretty good awareness. He makes sure he understands where he is in relationship to the basketball and his man, and he moves to ensure he stays in a position to defend the player. He also possess decent lateral quickness, which is good because if he switches on a perimeter screen, he will not be a huge liability.

Many of Cunningham's weaknesses stem from his size. When going up against bigger and more athletic players, he has a difficult time defending these individuals. Furthermore, he is not a great rebounder. This season he averaged just over seven rebounds per game in slightly more than 31 minutes of action. These are not good numbers for a power forwards, especially in the NBA. Cunningham has good length and technique, but his physical limitations allow for stronger players to out muscle him for rebounds.

Overall, Cunningham has shown improvement in his senior season that he did not demonstrate in the past. He may be a little undersized for the next level, but by getting him into the weight room, he should be able to develop his strength which will help out on the court. He has a good understanding for the game and the tools to be successful, but it will take time to continue developing Cunningham.

Projection: Second rounder (45-60, depending on team need). I just do not see Cunningham going undrafted. He improved drastically from his junior to senior season, which leaves me to believe he still has more room to improve. He will not contribute initially wherever he goes. He will more than likely be sent to the D-League or overseas to refine his game.

Best fit:
- Portland: after several PF and C expire this off-season, the Trailblazers will have some holes to fill in its front court. It depends if Portland wants a project or a player who is more refined.
- Minnesota: the Timberwolves already have their starting bigs next season (Love and Jefferson) and some decent depth (Cardinal, Smith, Gomes). Unless a player they just can't pass on falls to them, taking on Cunningham as a project could be interesting.
- Detroit: the Pistons are a team that should look to rebuild. The team will not win with its current roster. With Wallace, Brown and McDyess coming off the books this off-season and it being uncertain if they resign with the Pistons, I see the Pistons targeting a big man (either in free agency or the draft), but if they are looking for someone to step in immediately, Cunningham may not be the right option.

Gerald Henderson

Gerald Henderson, #15 SG, Duke
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 215 lbs

Strengths:
- Mid-range game
- Slashing abilities
- Catch and shoot
- Athletic
- Explosiveness
- Lateral quickness
- Wingspan
- Lockdown defender
- NBA type body
- Hustle
- Passing
- Rebounding
- Potential

Weaknesses:
- Inconsistent offensively
- Three-point shooting
- Creating own shot
- Changing directions with the ball

Summary:
Gerald Henderson is a freak athlete. That was the first thing I told myself the first time I saw him play as a freshman. He still continues to impress with his athletic abilities. He uses his quick first step and explosiveness to blow by defenders as he slashes towards the basket. When he makes his move, he is looking to score on a dunk, whether he gets fouled or not. This part of his game is where I have seen drastic improvement every year. He has looked to get to the rim more often throughout games, which has resulted in him making more trips to the line. When he gets to the line, he knocks down his free throws (converting on 76.1% of them this season). Henderson's mid-range game is nothing to scoff at either. He can comfortably pull up from 16'-20' out and knock down a jump shot. He is also very good at catching and shooting the basketball. His numbers do not lie; he has taken better shots this year, converting on 49% of his shot inside the arc. If Henderson does not have an open shot, he is able to find others in the offense because he is a very good passer.

There are some weaknesses in Henderson's offensive game, but nothing that can not be fixed. He is not a great three-point shooter, which is surprising because he possess nice form and elevation when he shoots. Earlier in his junior season he was converting approximately 50% of his three pointers, but that number has sense dropped off to 33.6%. He also is not great at creating his own shot. If he were to improve his ability to change directions with the ball in his hands, he may be able to create more separation and opportunities for an open shot or take better care of the ball when he slashes towards the basket.

Defensively, there is much to like about Henderson. He is a lockdown defender who possess great lateral quickness, hustle and heart. If he get beaten on the dribble, Henderson is quick enough to recover. When a shot is taken, he will challenge the shooter, and then proceed to crash the boards. He is good shot blocker and rebounder for a guard because of his wingspan and explosiveness (which allows him to get up and make a play on the ball). He can make a big difference on this end of the court, especially in the pros because of his skills, dedication and physical attributes.

Overall, Henderson is great prospect for the NBA. He has the skills, body, dedication and potential to be a solid player for many years. He is not always consistent on the offensive end of the floor, but his hustle and defensive play can certainly help almost any team looking at drafting Henderson.

Projection: mid- to late-lottery pick (7-12)

Best fit: **TBD**

Chase Budinger

Chase Budinger, #34 SG/SF, Arizona
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 218 lbs

Strengths:
- Spot up shooting
- Excellent size for a wing
- Athleticism
- Explosiveness
- Transition game
- Basketball IQ
- Offensive movement
- Three point shooting
- Unselfish

Weaknesses:
- Defensive abilities
- First step
- Ability to create own shot
- Assertiveness
- Lateral quickness
- Mid-range game
- Ball handling

Summary:
Let me start by saying that Chase Budinger is an athletic wingman (he was a dual All-State athlete in basketball and volleyball) with a strong basketball IQ. He did not really improve from his sophomore to his junior year like most expected, but he did continue to play well. He has a great sense of where he and his teammates are on the floor, where open spots are on the floor, and the ability to play in multi-speed offensive sets. All of these aspects emphasize his understanding of the game and how he can bring the best out of himself and his teammates. Budinger has many skills on the offensive end of the floor that make him a defensive nightmare. First off, he is 6'7" and plays the SG and SF positions, which is especially tall for a college wingman. He is able to use his height and athleticism to his advantage. He runs the court well in transition where he is often available for an open jump shot or ally-oop. He has great explosiveness which allows him to get up for lob passes and finish around the basket. In a half-court set, Budinger is able to find open areas on the court because he is constantly in motion. Before he starts to move to an open area, Budinger will first look to set up his defender for a backdoor cut. If he does not get the ball, he typically looks to find an open area along the perimeter. He shoots very well from behind the arc (39.9%) by either catching and shooting the ball or taking a spot up jumper. If a shot is not available, Budinger possess good court vision and passing skills to find open teammates.

Budinger does have several offensive weaknesses. First, he is an average ball handler and has a slow first step. This affects his ability to take full advantage of his athletic abilities when he looks to slash towards the basket for a layup. Second, his mid-range game is not very consistent. Third, he is does not convert well if there is contact. Fourth, I would have liked to see be more aggressive and post up smaller defenders. If he can improve these areas of his offensive game, he can certainly be a scary offensive player.

Defensively, Budinger still has room to grow because he does not always assert himself. He does not have exceptional lateral quickness to keep up with quicker defenders. Sometimes Budinger loses focus and gets out of a defensive stance, making it easier for defenders to blow by him. This leaves me to question whether he will be able to defend the better athletes at the next level. He does position himself nicely though to grab rebounds, allowing himself to use his height and athleticism to pull in boards over smaller players. Overall, he has potential on the defensive end of the court.

Considering all of his strengths and weaknesses, I believe Budinger will make a good role player in the NBA. He can do a bit of everything, but just like Tyler Smith of Tennessee, he is not great at one specific area. He has a NBA-type body and great size to play the wing position. His experience, unselfish play and offensive potential make him a promising prospect. He will more than likely not be known for his defense in the NBA, but he could be known for his offensive abilities as this is the area that I believe he has the most upside in.

Projection: mid- to late-first round (20-27)

Player comparison: Brent Barry

Best fit:
- Philadelphia: Budinger will provide outside shooting the 76ers need. He also plays into the athletic wing mentality of this team.
- Memphis: Budinger has the potential to play either the 2 or 3 in the NBA. The Grizzlies' bench is thin when it comes to a solid back up player at these positions. Budinger can step in and fill this role on a young team.